Left chart: trends in portfolio allocation of aggregated U.S. investors, using
this method.
Equity and credit data (quarterly from 1952 onward) are from FRED, as are currency, reserves, and gold data (plotted monthly).
The stocks and flows used for gold are from this page.
Bitcoin data (daily, with gaps in early 2010) are from Bevand and Coin Metrics.
Right chart: the same data as in the left chart, though plotted with a
logarithmic horizontal axis. Its reference point is the beginning of 2009, when
the bitcoin network started.
Will bitcoin overtake gold?
Left chart: trends in the fraction of dollar-denominated debt issued by the U.S. Treasury
and in U.S. federal interest expense relative to tax revenue. Data are from FRED.
Right chart: trends in quantities reflecting employment, manufacturing,
monetary policy, and asset prices, all expressed relative to their values one year beforehand.
The vertical axis (logarithmic) extends a factor of three both upward and downward.
Continuing claims (green) is inverted; its points sit below the bottom of the chart in 2020
and above the top of the chart in 2021.
To separate bitcoin's cyclicality from its power-law growth,
its price is raised to the one-sixth power and the result divided by its age
(see "Relatively aged").
Neither bitcoin nor federal reserve holdings of mortgage-backed securities existed
during the earliest years shown in the chart.
Data are from FRED, Investing.com, California Association of Realtors, Yahoo! Finance, Bevand, and Coin Metrics.
Will bitcoin's market cycles match those of other assets in period and phase?
Left chart: trends in equity (assets - liabilities),
relative to total balance sheet size (assets + liabilities),
of four aggregate sectors.
Data are from FRED.
Right chart: trends in the size of the U.S. banking system and in
flows related to sales, production, and debt service,
each expressed relative to their values one year beforehand.
Data are from FRED.
Will the federal government continue to accumulate more liabilities than assets over time?
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